ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 060608 
SPC MCD 060608 
VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-060815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0065
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern Tennessee and southern
Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 060608Z - 060815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing weak destabilization within the warm air advection
regime over the TN/KY border region could support surface-based
storms and a risk for hail, damaging winds, or a tornado overnight.
A WW is possible, but it remains unclear if one is needed.

DISCUSSION...As of 0600 UTC, regional observations show weak, but
likely surface-based, destabilization is ongoing over parts of the
central MS River Valley and TN/KY border region. Large-scale ascent
ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Midwest is
supporting persistent low-level warm air advection over much of the
Mid south. Widespread predominately elevated convection, is ongoing
north of the surface warm front over the OH Valley. While to the
south, surface dewpoints in the middle to upper 60s F were advecting
into western TN beneath fairly steep mid-level lapse rates around
7-8 C/km. Sufficient to offset nocturnal stabilization, continued
low-level theta-E advection is supporting weak to moderate MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg.

Surface-based storm development appears possible along and south of
the frontal zone over north-central TN and far southern KY, and
farther west along a cold front. Enlarged low-level hodographs,
coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, could foster a
couple sustained surface-based supercells or short bowing segments
capable of large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.

Current observational trends and recent HRRR guidance show a gradual
increase in convective coverage over the next few hours. It remains
unclear how much of the convection will remain surface-based along
and south of the front. However, with strong shear and sufficient
moisture/buoyancy in place, the severe risk could warrant a WW and
conditions will continue to be monitored.

..Lyons/Mosier.. 02/06/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36898890 37278723 37558528 37628350 37108263 36218301
            35978361 35688706 35688817 35818894 36898890 

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