Mesoscale Discussion 0162
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0241 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

   Areas affected...cntrl/n cntrl into nern Texas...southeastern
   Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121941Z - 122215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development appears possible
   as early as 4-5 PM CDT near the I-35 corridor, before spreading
   eastward accompanied by increasing potential for large hail and
   damaging wind gusts.  It is possible a severe weather watch may be
   needed by early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Beneath warm, dry lower/mid-tropospheric air,
   associated with an elevated mixed-layer, boundary-layer based
   moistening has occurred across much of southern through eastern
   Texas.  This has been modest though, with higher precipitable water
   content (in excess of .75 inches) confined to a narrow corridor
   inland of mid/upper Texas coastal areas, and tending to advect
   north-northeastward across eastern Texas.

   Westward into a developing axis of stronger daytime heating and
   deeper boundary-layer mixing, roughly northwest of Del Rio into
   areas west of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, an initially diffuse
   dryline may sharpen while shifting into/across the Interstate 35
   corridor of central/North Texas.  However, even as surface dew
   points begin to mix out across this corridor, model forecast
   soundings indicate that cooling on the leading edge of a mid-level
   cold core (temperatures of -20 to -22 around 500 mb) emerging from
   the Pecos Valley/Texas South Plains will steepen lapse rates, erode
   inhibition and still support mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1000
   J/kg.

   Generally within the exit region of a 70+ kt cyclonic mid-level jet,
   it appears that this could become supportive of scattered vigorous
   thunderstorm development as early as 21-22Z.  Initially, stronger
   storms may pose a risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong
   surface gusts.  As this activity spreads east of the Interstate-35
   corridor into early evening, in the presence of strong deep-layer
   shear, there appears potential for substantive further
   intensification as it gradually encounters the better low-level
   moisture return.  This probably will include at least a period with
   increasing risk for large, potentially damaging hail, before
   convection possibly begins to consolidate into an organizing cluster
   later this evening.

   ..Kerr.. 03/12/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   31329751 32089765 32719777 33589719 34719623 34869443
               32539506 31629503 30939564 30659678 31329751