Mesoscale Discussion 0245
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

   Areas affected...parts of southern Illinois and Indiana...western
   Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191925Z - 192130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development east of the Mississippi River,
   into areas south of the Ohio River, appears increasingly possible by
   5-7 PM CDT, if not a bit earlier.  This may include the evolution of
   a broken line with embedded supercells, posing at least the risk for
   severe hail and wind.

   DISCUSSION...From around the Greater St. Louis area southward,
   convective development along the dryline still appears suppressed by
   mid-level subsidence and warming to the east and south of the
   intense cyclonic mid-level jet nosing through the middle Mississippi
   Valley.  However, better low-level moisture return (characterized by
   mid 50s F surface dew points) is ongoing across the Missouri
   Bootheel and adjacent portions of western Kentucky through southern
   Illinois.  As this continues, coincident with the eastward
   progression of the mid-level trough, it appears that mid-level
   forcing for ascent and cooling aloft may gradually overcome
   inhibition and support increasing thunderstorm development, perhaps
   into areas south of the Ohio River by early evening.  

   Rapid Refresh forecast soundings indicate considerable strengthening
   and enlargement of the low-level hodographs around this same time,
   though perhaps with a tendency for the hodographs to trend more
   linear as thunderstorms finally initiate with the removal of the
   mid-level inhibition.  Regardless, strong deep-layer shear will be
   supportive of organized convection, including supercells, with
   potential to produce at least severe hail and wind.

   ..Kerr/Leitman.. 03/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   36788895 38078861 38888669 38518637 37378714 36618804
               36788895