Mesoscale Discussion 0256
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0529 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

   Areas affected...central into eastern Texas...northern Louisiana and
   southern Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 232229Z - 240100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form along the cold front
   from southern Arkansas southwestward toward San Antonio. Large hail
   is likely and localized wind damage is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Relatively strong instability has developed ahead of
   the cold front, owing to strong heating, steep lapse rates aloft and
   dewpoints in the 60s F. Objective analysis indicates MLCAPE of
   2000-3000 J/kg, which will certainly support robust updrafts.
   Effective deep-layer shear is averaging around 40 kt over northern
   areas, with a bit weaker flow over parts of TX. However, as storms
   develop, they will likely propagate rightward off the hodograph,
   resulting in clusters of severe storms. Spotty reports of 2.00" hail
   appear likely across the region with the strongest cells. The entire
   threat area is expected to remain within a relatively narrow
   southwest-northeast zone, though a gradual southward propagation is
   expected. As such, much of the area is being considered for a severe
   thunderstorm watch.

   ..Jewell/Gleason.. 03/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29179825 29089917 29389961 29789976 30099967 30299952
               30789859 31289752 31949617 33579287 33459225 33059198
               32379199 31969256 29179825