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Mesoscale Discussion 283 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025
Areas affected...North-central/northeast Kansas...southeast
Nebraska...far southwest Iowa...far Northwest Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 292051Z - 292245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered storms may develop in the
next 1-3 hours. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary
threats.
DISCUSSION...Tied to a lead shortwave trough in the central Plains,
cumulus have been deepening along a dryline in central Kansas.
Despite somewhat limited moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s F),
surface heating and forcing from the trough may promote storm
initiation within the next 1-3 hours. Steep mid-level lapse rates
and 40-45 kts of effective shear orthogonal to the dryline would
promote discrete storms capable of large hail and strong/damaging
winds. Low-level hodograph curvature is sufficient for some
low-level rotation and potentially a brief tornado, but a generally
dry boundary layer will likely limit that threat.
..Wendt/Smith.. 03/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 38509735 39569767 40109759 40729641 40819596 40659558
40049532 39459533 38509735
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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