Mesoscale Discussion 0316
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1033 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

   Areas affected...Northern Mississippi...Northwest Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 310333Z - 310600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across part of
   northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama over the next few hour.
   An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat will be the primary
   threats. Weather watch issuance appears likely.

   DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a well-developed
   MCS located over western Kentucky and western Tennessee. The severe
   MCS is located near the northern edge of a moderately unstable
   airmass, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg
   range. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated
   with a distinct vorticity maxima and shortwave trough that is moving
   through the Tennessee Valley, evident on water vapor imagery. In
   addition to the moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear is
   evident on the Nashville WSR-88D VWP with 0-6 km shear around 50
   knots. The VWP also has strong speed and directional shear in the
   boundary layer. This will support a continued severe threat with the
   line. Short-term model forecasts move the southern end of the line
   east-southeastward across northern Mississippi and into northwest
   Alabama over the next few hours. The line will likely be accompanied
   by damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat.

   ..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34468668 33958715 33518820 33088971 33079049 33219086
               33509109 33899103 34359073 34779016 34958928 34968780
               34868688 34468668 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN