ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 031622 SPC MCD 031622 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-031815- Mesoscale Discussion 0378 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...Southeast OK...northeast TX...northern LA...central/southern AR...western/middle TN...northern MS...far northwest AL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 031622Z - 031815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe storm threat will increase into this afternoon. One or more watches will likely be needed, though timing is somewhat uncertain. DISCUSSION...Scattered strong storms are ongoing this morning from eastern OK into AR and western TN. These storms are currently elevated to the north of an outflow-reinforced front draped from the ArkLaTex into southern AR and northern MS. A rather strong southerly low-level jet (as noted on regional VWPs) is expected to persist into the afternoon, which will help to maintain elevated convection north of the front. This regenerative convection will likely tend to limit northward advance of the front through the day. However, moderate to strong MUCAPE and favorable deep-layer shear will support development of elevated supercells and clusters north of the front, with an attendant threat of large to very large hail and severe/damaging gusts. Along/south of the front, a favorable tornado environment is already in place, with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg, strong deep-layer shear, and enlarged low-level hodographs with 0-1 km SRH of 200-400 m2/s2. This environment will remain in place into this afternoon. Decreasing MLCINH with time will support potential for surface-based storm development near and south of the front, though the coverage and residence time of warm-sector supercells remains uncertain. Any sustained surface-based supercell within this environment would pose a significant tornado (EF2+) threat, in addition to very large hail and severe wind potential. While timing remains somewhat uncertain, one or more watches will likely be needed this afternoon across the region, with a Tornado Watch likely for areas near/south of the front. ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 34718775 33618958 32019427 31579503 31549574 31739596 31919600 32979564 33789503 34499354 35339112 36108940 36478757 36588665 36148628 35558661 34958739 34718775 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN NNNN