Mesoscale Discussion 0381
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0331 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of West Virginia and northern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032031Z - 032300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms moving into West Virginia may pose a threat of
   severe weather this afternoon and evening.  Convective trends will
   continue to be monitored, although a watch appears unlikely at this
   time.

   DISCUSSION...Despite midlevel height rises across the area,
   low-level warm-air advection continues to support thunderstorm
   development across eastern Kentucky.  The storms are expected to
   continue moving eastward across West Virginia, though high clouds
   and poorer boundary-layer moisture (per 18Z RNK sounding) have
   limited destabilization.  With low-level flow (and attendant warm
   advection) forecast to increase into the evening, there is a threat
   for the convection to persist.  Given the sufficient low-level and
   deep-layer shear across the area, these storms will have the
   potential to produce damaging winds, hail, and a tornado. Trends
   will be monitored through the evening, but a watch appears to be
   unlikely at this time.

   ..Jirak/Guyer.. 04/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   37968246 38258201 38258094 38437951 39007785 38357744
               37577755 37427861 37207996 37208091 37158158 37408235
               37968246 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN