ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 040635 SPC MCD 040635 TXZ000-OKZ000-040830- Mesoscale Discussion 0388 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Areas affected...parts of w cntrl through nw Texas and adjacent swrn OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 110... Valid 040635Z - 040830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 110 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms, posing primarily the risk for large, potentially damaging, hail appears likely to spread across and northeast of the San Angelo and Abilene vicinities through 3-5 AM CDT. The extent to which this threat persists northward into the Red River Valley and north central Texas thereafter remains unclear, but trends are being monitored for the possibility of an additional severe weather watch. DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have developed the past few hours, including several sustained vigorous storms. Activity is all rooted above shallow cold air to the north of a sharp surface front (now stalled near the College Station into Austin and Del Rio vicinities), focused along the northwestern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, roughly delineated by temperatures of 8-10 C around 700 mb. Forecast soundings along this corridor exhibit "loaded gun" thermodynamic profiles, rooted within a moist layer between 850-700 mb, characterized by most unstable CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Shear within the convective layer is strong and supportive of supercells. The more intense convection appears likely to shift with the stronger lower/mid-tropospheric forcing for ascent forecast to spread across the San Angelo toward Abilene vicinity during the next several hours. There are indications in latest model output that further warming above the potentially more buoyant lower-level air mass could increasingly suppress stronger storm development toward 09-10Z. However, this remains uncertain. ..Kerr.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 29900169 31020205 33440049 34539894 33479738 31819887 30080016 29690124 29900169 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN NNNN