ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 040752 
SPC MCD 040752 
DEZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-040845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0390
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...ern WV Pnhdl...nrn VA...MD...DC...srn PA...DE...srn
NJ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 040752Z - 040845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong, potentially damaging wind gusts, may accompany
weak thunderstorm activity likely to spread east of the Blue Ridge
and across the Greater Washington D.C./Baltimore metropolitan areas
through 6-7 AM EDT.  It is not clear that a severe weather watch is
needed, but trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...A narrow line of thunderstorms has shown some
intensification, near and south of a wave or weak MCV now east of
Elkins WV.  This activity has been propagating rapidly eastward,
along and just south of a slow moving or stalling cold front, 
around 50 kt, which is about the strength of the mean westerly
deep-layer ambient mean flow across the Allegheny Mountains into
northern Mid Atlantic.  

Due to generally weak deep-layer lapse rates, CAPE along this
corridor is quite weak west of the mountains, but improves somewhat
(CAPE to 500 J/kg) in better low-level moisture across northern
Virginia through southern New Jersey.  While some further
intensification to the east of the Blue Ridge is possible as
activity rapidly advances eastward through 11-12Z, thunderstorm
intensities are likely to remain rather modest, based on forecast
soundings.  However, unsaturated profiles in lower/mid-levels, may
contribute to evaporative cooling and downward momentum transport of
rear-inflow, which may undergo some further convective augmentation.

..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/04/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   39897751 39677548 38737539 38497760 38557915 39397855
            39897751 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

NNNN