Mesoscale Discussion 0393
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1220 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast TX...southeast OK...AR...extreme
   northwest LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 041720Z - 041915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Supercell development is likely this afternoon. All
   hazards will be possible, including the potential for strong
   tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...Rich low-level moisture is in place early this
   afternoon across LA and east TX into southern AR, with mean mixing
   ratios in the lowest 1 km of greater than 15 g/kg noted on 12Z
   soundings from SHV, LCH, CRP, and BRO. This moisture will continue
   to stream northward this afternoon, along and east of a cold front
   currently draped across east TX. The 12Z LZK sounding depicted a
   very shallow frontal inversion, and a persistently strong low-level
   jet should help an outflow-reinforced boundary lift northward as a
   warm front from AR into the lower OH Valley this afternoon, though
   cloudiness and persistent elevated convection north of the boundary
   may slow its northward advance somewhat. 

   Gradually deepening showers are currently noted within the
   destabilizing environment from AR into northwest MS. Relatively warm
   temperatures aloft were also noted on regional 12Z soundings.
   However, continued diurnal heating and removal of MLCINH should
   eventually allow for surface-based storm development with time into
   this afternoon, as large-scale ascent gradually increases in advance
   of an approaching mid/upper-level trough. Moderate to strong
   buoyancy (with MLCAPE of at least 2000-3000 J/kg) and favorable
   deep-layer shear will support supercell development. Storm coverage
   may tend to be greater near the cold front from east TX into western
   AR, but isolated supercells will also be possible farther east and
   also in the vicinity of the warm front. 

   All hazards will be possible with any surface-based supercells
   within this regime. Favorable instability, rich boundary-layer
   moisture, and relatively strong low-level shear/SRH will support the
   potential for strong tornadoes with any sustained, mature supercells
   that remain in the warm sector. One or more Tornado Watches are
   expected this afternoon in order to cover these threats.

   ..Dean/Thompson.. 04/04/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32569600 33879497 35829387 36329270 36439197 36419124
               35829117 35079123 34429152 33429264 32369410 31759541
               32569600 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN