ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 041757 SPC MCD 041757 TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-042000- Mesoscale Discussion 0394 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Mississippi...western Tennessee/Kentucky...and eastern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 041757Z - 042000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Deep convective initiation appears likely in the next couple of hours. Storms that are able to develop robust updrafts will pose a severe weather threat through the afternoon. Depending on convective trends, a tornado watch may be needed this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation appears likely within a deepening cumulus field across the open warm sector. Continued heating and destabilization (MLCAPE already over 2000 J/kg into Tennessee per mesoanalysis) across the area with negligible convective inhibition should result in convective initiation, despite the lack of a specific focus. While the integrated instability profile appears favorable for deep convection, a warm layer above 700 mb is contributing to weaker midlevel lapse rates. In fact, the latest CAM runs indicate convective initiation across the region, but they struggle to produce simulated storms with robust updrafts. Nevertheless, for any storms that are able to develop strong updrafts, the kinematic environment will support supercells with tornado potential, given sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear. The convective trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of a tornado watch. ..Jirak/Thompson.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 33839135 34329131 35199068 35809005 36488932 36788887 36898827 36778759 36448725 35578747 35038791 34548846 34158896 33769045 33839135 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN NNNN