ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 041826 SPC MCD 041826 TXZ000-042000- Mesoscale Discussion 0395 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Areas affected...Parts of south-central into northeast TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 041826Z - 042000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon, with a threat of large hail and strong to severe gusts. Some tornado potential could also evolve with time. DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon, a slow-moving cold front is draped from northeast into south-central TX, with another weak cold front/wind shift intersecting the primary front west of San Antonio and extending southward toward Laredo. Elevated convection is increasing to the cool side of the boundary across north-central TX, with increasing showers noted across the warm sector noted across east-central TX. Storm coverage is expected to increase with time on either side of the front, as ascent gradually increases in response to an approaching mid/upper-level trough. Strong instability (with MLCAPE near/above 3000 J/kg along/east of the front and similar MUCAPE magnitudes to the immediate cool side) and around 50 kt of effective shear are providing a favorable environment for organized convection, and maturing convection this afternoon could evolve into a few supercells and/or organized clusters, with a threat of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. The KGRK and KHGX VWPs depict a rather strong (35-45 kt) low-level jet, and effective SRH will be sufficient to support some tornado threat with any sustained warm-sector supercells. Watch issuance will become increasingly possible this afternoon if observational trends support development of multiple organized storms across the region. ..Dean/Thompson.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 29699754 29929810 30269839 30649841 32309656 32499606 31999562 31549538 31179554 30629606 30199654 29839732 29699754 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN NNNN