ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 050223 
SPC MCD 050223 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-050330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0402
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0923 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...parts of western Kentucky...southern Illinois...far
southwest Indiana...and far southeast Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 050223Z - 050330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging winds and embedded tornadoes are possible across
parts of western Kentucky, southern Illinois, far southeast
Missouri, and far southwest Indiana with a line of storms. A watch
will be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms with several bowing segments is
ongoing across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois near a warm
front moving slowly northward. Buoyancy has diurnally waned, but
some low-level buoyancy exists per Mesoanalysis. Additionally, a
strong low-level jet exists, providing very strong low-level shear
(54 kts of 0-1 km shear per the PAH VWP). Given the baroclinic zone
in the area, this may provide some vorticity for circulations on the
leading edge of the bowing segments, some tornado threat is
apparent. Additionally, the strong boundary layer flow associated
with the strong low-level jet may lead to a wind threat, as well.
For these reasons, a watch will be needed soon.

..Supinie/Hart.. 04/05/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   36658850 36558965 36878992 38048895 38938734 38768661
            38358610 37338663 36788695 36658850 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

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