ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 050636 SPC MCD 050636 OKZ000-TXZ000-050830- Mesoscale Discussion 0406 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Areas affected...parts of s cntrl TX though s cntrl OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 121... Valid 050636Z - 050830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 121 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for storms capable of producing severe hail continues, particularly to the west and northwest of the San Antonio vicinity. Farther north, into the Red River Valley, this threat is expected to lessen with time as storms continue to consolidate. Potential for activity to produce strong surface gusts appears low, and not likely to increase, but this remains a bit more uncertain. Trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of an additional severe weather watch. DISCUSSION...Cold surface air remains entrenched along and north of a stalled surface front across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, northwest of College Station, but south of Austin, into areas south of Del Rio. Although this cold air, where convection has been increasing, appears deeper than last night, elevated "loaded gun" type profiles have lingered above the stable near-surface environment. However, large-scale forcing for ascent and cooling aloft associated with another short wave perturbation overspreading the Texas South Plains is beginning overturn this environment. Convection is becoming increasingly widespread west/northwest of Hondo TX into the Red River Valley, where one intense cell has been approaching the Wichita Falls area. A corridor of enhanced lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection to the west through northwest of San Antonio still seems to offer the most prolonged period of continuing discrete storm development through the early morning hours. Otherwise, as convection farther to the west and north continues to trend less discrete, the potential for severe hail is expected to lessen with time. The potential for the development of gravity wave surface pressure perturbations posing increasing potential for strong surface gusts remains unclear. Given the depth of surface-based cold air, this still seems low, but it might not be completely negligible. ..Kerr.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 33689920 34699797 34289611 31239712 29829855 28989962 29520084 30180065 31550011 32469953 33689920 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN NNNN