ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 052242 
SPC MCD 052242 
VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-052345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0417
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...parts of eastern Kentucky...eastern Tennessee...and
far western Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 052242Z - 052345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convective intensity is expected to decrease with time
across portions of eastern Tennessee, eastern Kentucky, and far
western Virginia, however a threat for damaging gusts and embedded
tornadoes may persist. A watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Storms are currently ongoing across middle Tennessee
and central Kentucky including a bowing segment impacting the
Nashville metro area with a few tornadoes and a 58-kt gust at BNA.
Ahead of these storms a strong low-level jet continues, which
maintains a threat for damaging winds in the near term. This
low-level jet also provides low-level shear (40-50 kts 0-1 km shear)
to maintain a threat for tornadoes both in this bowing segment and
in any other discrete storms. 

An ACARS profile from 2046 UTC from BNA shows modest low-level
buoyancy to support these threats, as well, however it also shows
warm temperatures aloft, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 6 C/km.
These warm temperatures aloft combined with a decrease in surface
moisture with eastward extent may limit the eastward extent of the
threat for damaging gusts and tornadoes. Due to the decrease in
buoyancy with time, expect convective intensity to trend downward
over the next couple hours. Despite this, a watch may be needed to
cover the wind and embedded tornado threat, and convective trends
will be monitored.

..Supinie/Hart.. 04/05/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36958261 36398281 36158381 36098482 36148555 36368564
            36908548 37348508 37568383 37458308 37308284 36958261 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

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