ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 060115 SPC MCD 060115 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-060245- Mesoscale Discussion 0419 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0815 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Areas affected...Northeast MS...northern AL...southern middle TN Concerning...Tornado Watch 124...125... Valid 060115Z - 060245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 124, 125 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for all severe hazards will continue into late evening. New watch issuance is likely by 9 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...A cluster of intense supercells is ongoing across extreme northeast MS this evening, with multiple spotter and radar-confirmed tornadoes over the last 60-90 minutes. A trailing storm cluster into north-central MS has also shown signs of increasing organizations. The environment from north-central/northeast MS into extreme northwest AL and extreme southwest/southern middle TN remains favorable for tornadic supercells, with favorably backed surface winds, rich boundary-layer moisture, moderate to strong buoyancy, and increasing low-level flow/shear (as noted on the KGWX VWP). This environment continues to support a threat of strong tornadoes, as well as localized large to very large hail and damaging winds. Any further upscale growth could result in potential for larger-scale swaths of damaging winds as storms move east-northeastward with time. Downstream into a larger portion of northern AL and southern middle TN, lower dewpoints (dropping to the lower 60s F) and weaker buoyancy are noted in current observations and analyses. However, the low-level jet will remain strong through the evening/night, and some moisture recovery will be possible in advance of the ongoing convection. This will support a continued threat of all severe hazards well past the scheduled 9 PM CDT expiration time of WW 124. As a result, new watch issuance is expected soon, which may extend into downstream areas of north-central/northeast AL and southern/eastern TN. ..Dean/Hart.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33868898 33858951 34078963 34358931 35278791 35468737 35488609 35408541 35108544 34628619 34208760 33938872 33868898 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN NNNN