Mesoscale Discussion 0484
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

   Areas affected...parts of southern Indiana...northern Kentucky...and
   southwestern Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191925Z - 192130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few stronger storms -- capable producing strong wind
   gusts and small hail -- will be possible this afternoon.  WW
   issuance is not anticipated at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Latest satellite imagery shows that filtered sunshine
   -- and associated afternoon heating -- has occurred over the last
   couple of hours, but with an increase in cu/cb at this time --
   particularly over southern Indiana.  On the western fringe of the
   cumuliform cloudiness, radar indicates increasing deep convection
   (over far southwestern Indiana) near the cold front, with some
   lightning now indicated.

   RAP-based objective analysis shows -- aided by the aforementioned
   heating -- that mixed-layer CAPE has increased to near/just above
   500 J/kg, and with a bit of additional heating destabilization
   possible, some increase in convective intensity is expected over the
   next couple of hours.

   With low-level flow weakly veering, and increasing to 50 kt between
   2km and 3km AGL, and in excess of 70 kt at mid levels, shear is
   plenty sufficient to aid in convective organization, and associated
   potential for strong wind gusts locally.  Though coverage of any
   severe-weather reports would likely remain sparse, thus negating any
   current consideration for WW issuance, we will continue to monitor
   environmental evolution across the area.

   ..Goss/Mosier.. 04/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   37898660 37938741 38488714 39268587 39918382 39418305
               38518373 38328457 37898660 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN