Mesoscale Discussion 0521
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0820 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 230120Z - 230315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong/severe thunderstorms are possible this
   evening. Hail is the primary risk.

   DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery suggests a weak, low amplitude
   short-wave trough is located over the central Plains. This feature
   is translating east and may provide some encouragement for isolated
   convective development along/near a frontal zone that currently
   extends from south of CNK-north of STJ. 00z sounding from TOP
   exhibited very steep lapse rates, but notable capping was evident
   near 2km, and surface-based convection may struggle to develop as
   nocturnal cooling increases. However, large-scale ascent ahead of
   the short wave may cool/moist mid levels such that an elevated
   parcel is more likely to freely convect over the next few hours.
   This activity could briefly attain severe levels, but
   longevity/coverage may not warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.

   ..Darrow/Mosier.. 04/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39129752 40389460 40389345 39709364 38139657 39129752 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN