Mesoscale Discussion 0543
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0233 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

   Areas affected...parts of cntrl and sern TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 241933Z - 242130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms continues to organize, with
   signs of increasing potential to produce strong to severe gusts
   while propagating southeastward toward the mid/upper Texas coastal
   plain through 5-7 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent associated with
   lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, and southeasterly updraft
   inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air (characterized by CAPE
   in excess of 2000 J/Kg), have maintained vigorous thunderstorm
   development.  Activity has undergone notable intensification and
   increasing organization, and it appears that a meso-beta scale
   cyclonic circulation is becoming better-defined near the Waco
   vicinity, where a couple of 50+ kt surface gusts have recently been
   observed.  

   Despite continued gradual warming around 700 mb, and some suggestion
   that the larger-scale forcing for ascent may weaken, the
   boundary-layer ahead of the storms remains potentially supportive of
   further intensification of the convective system, southeastward
   toward the mid/upper Texas coastal plain into early evening. 
   Deep-layer mean flow and shear remain generally modest, as does the
   strength of the surface cold pool (as of 19Z observational data). 
   However, with further strengthening of the mesoscale vortex and
   west-northwesterly rear inflow, there remains potential for a
   continued increase in risk for strong to severe gusts during the
   next few hours.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 04/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31209864 31229751 31609697 31689612 32209488 30849454
               30079633 30289793 30759889 31209864 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN