Mesoscale Discussion 0550
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0707 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

   Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma into far southern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170...

   Valid 250007Z - 250130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe weather threat for all hazards (hail, damaging
   winds, and a tornado or two) continues across WW 170, particularly
   where supercells have developed and begun to move east-southeast
   across portions of northern Oklahoma. This threat will continue into
   the early evening hours.

   DISCUSSION...Supercells along the Kansas/Oklahoma border have taken
   on an east-southeast storm motion as mid and low-level mesocyclones
   have matured. These storms are capable of all hazards, having
   already produced 2.5" hail and a tornado. 

   VAD wind profiles from KDDC and KVNX don't show an overall abundance
   of storm-relative helicity, but do indicate some curvature of the
   hodograph in the lowest levels. Additionally, current surface
   mesoanalysis indicates these storms exist within an area of locally
   enhanced surface vorticity. With the onset of the nocturnal
   low-level jet, in addition to the observed southeastward storm
   motion, SRH is expected to increase into the early evening and
   support a continued threat for all hazards, including tornadoes. The
   greatest short-term threat for continued tornado development will be
   with the southeastern-most storm, with unimpeded inflow and a
   favorable storm motion vector. The tornado threat will diminish into
   the evening hours as the nocturnal boundary layer stabilizes, but
   all supercells will be capable of 2.0+" hail and 65-85 MPH wind
   gusts.

   ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37090027 37300009 37359983 37309940 37199886 37029838
               36819810 36649811 36429820 36229839 36179865 36159905
               36229940 36369964 36619994 36760014 36930027 37090027 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN