Mesoscale Discussion 0557
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

   Areas affected...TX South Plains and the southern Panhandle into far
   eastern NM

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 251721Z - 251915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Several supercells will likely develop by late afternoon.
   Very large hail from baseball to softball size will be the primary
   initial threat. Tornado potential may be brief/limited early, but
   will increase into early evening. A tornado watch will be needed by
   mid-afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...17Z surface analysis placed a cyclone just west of
   Amarillo, along a wavy quasi-stationary front across the southern
   High Plains. A convective outflow boundary, reinforced by earlier
   convection over OK, extends in a west/east-orientation centered on
   the Plainview vicinity. Despite nebulous large-scale ascent,
   low-level convergence along these boundaries coupled with continued
   boundary-layer heating should yield sustained thunderstorm
   development by 19-20Z. 

   Ample low-level moisture, characterized by low to mid 60s surface
   dew points are well-established to the south of the outflow
   boundary. Despite some weak mid-level warming, peak MLCAPE should
   reach 2500-3000 J/kg in a couple hours. Low-level winds will
   initially be weak, but sufficient elongation of the hodograph will
   support at least a few intense supercells by late afternoon. Large
   to very large hail will be the primary threat. A more focused
   corridor of tornado potential should become evident, with any
   discrete supercells along the mesoscale outflow boundary, as the
   west TX low-level jet strengthens into early evening.

   ..Grams/Smith.. 04/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35620252 35030269 34440326 33910344 32950358 32750295
               32740235 33110144 33150059 33350033 34040041 34580117
               35280148 35660162 35620252 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN