Mesoscale Discussion 0560
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0319 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

   Areas affected...the TX South Plains

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 172...

   Valid 252019Z - 252145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 172 continues.

   SUMMARY...Greatest potential for a slow-moving, long-lived intense
   supercell will be across the Texas South Plains portion of WW 172,
   along a largely west/east-oriented outflow boundary.

   DISCUSSION...Initial sustained supercell development has been
   drifting east over Bailey County, with additional incipient cells to
   its east towards Plainview. Surface/low-level convergence will
   remain maximized near the TX/NM border over the next couple hours,
   which should support further intensification of this ongoing
   activity. With only around 20-kts of 0-3 km shear per the Lubbock
   VWP, very large hail should remain the overarching threat in the
   near term, potentially reaching baseball to softball size. But
   strengthening of low-level east-southeasterlies should commence in
   the next couple hours. A corresponding increase in tornado potential
   is expected into early evening with ingest of mid 60s surface dew
   points from the Low Rolling Plains. Given weak large-scale ascent,
   convection should remain discrete enough into this time frame to
   support potential for a strong tornado in the most intense/mature
   supercell anchored along the mesoscale outflow boundary.

   ..Grams/Smith.. 04/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...

   LAT...LON   34080287 34180228 34160204 34120170 34020123 33760075
               33510068 33220083 33070100 33010138 33120183 33400212
               33650254 33810291 34080287 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN