Mesoscale Discussion 0642
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025

   Areas affected...much of southern and central Oklahoma...far
   northern Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208...

   Valid 020703Z - 020900Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat of severe gusts and hail remains over the
   entire watch area, with brief tornadoes, sporadic very large hail,
   and perhaps locally significant gusts over southern Oklahoma and
   along the Red River Valley.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have rapidly increased in coverage across much
   of western through southern OK, as the influence of the upper trough
   and cooling aloft overspread the moist and unstable air mass. The
   greatest threat area should continue to be over southern parts of
   the watch, in proximity to the stationary front. Here, both
   moisture, instability and convergence are maximized. Very large
   storms have evolved out of this developing cluster, with new cells
   just east of the primary supercell. Given the strong instability,
   low-level shear may be sufficient to support periodic mesocyclones
   and brief tornadoes. The primary risk will more likely be damaging
   wind and hail, both of which could be locally significant.

   For northern areas, the storms associated with the cold pool surge
   out of the west may continue to produce at least near-severe gusts.
   Although the low-level jet is not strong this evening, a very slow
   northward push of elevated moisture, coupled with steep lapse rates
   aloft, could conceivably aid some strengthening over time.

   ..Jewell.. 05/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33829828 33899865 33999885 34189891 34409871 34569771
               34589721 34669616 34499590 34159578 33819605 33659635
               33739762 33829828 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN