Mesoscale Discussion 0643
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0828 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025

   Areas affected...parts of the Mid-South to TN Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 021328Z - 021500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed to
   address severe-thunderstorm development eastward from the Mid-South.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple, probable severe thunderstorms have recently
   developed around the greater Memphis vicinity of the Mid-South.
   While slightly elevated at this time, downstream insolation should
   yield a transition to mainly surface-based storms in the next couple
   hours. Overnight CAM signals appear too slow on timing, evolution to
   broader multicell clustering with transient supercells seems
   probable into midday. 12Z Nashville observed sounding and recent
   Memphis VWP data sampled minimal MLCIN along with moderate westerly
   speed shear. This should support large hail as the primary near-term
   threat, along with increasing damaging wind potential later this
   morning.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 05/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36078982 36368903 36838802 36978650 36968549 36618535
               36058550 35118684 34578780 34158856 34138943 34248997
               34589045 35199019 36078982 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN