Mesoscale Discussion 0650
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0123 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

   Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 021823Z - 022030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase over portions of
   southwestern Texas through the afternoon. Supercells capable of
   producing large hail (some 2+ inch in diameter) and severe wind
   gusts are likely, and a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. A
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...A convective outflow boundary continues to sag
   southward as a small scale front/boundary advances from the Stockton
   Plateau. Ahead of both boundaries, the boundary layer continues to
   destabilize, with 3000 J/kg MLCAPE already in place given the
   presence of upper 60s F surface dewpoints overspread by 8-8.5 C/km
   mid-level lapse rates (per 18Z mesoanalysis). 60-80 kts of 300 mb
   westerly flow are also beginning to overspread the international
   border given the presence of a sub-tropical jet. As such, 40-50 kts
   of effective bulk shear is in place, in tandem with the
   aforementioned buoyancy, to support the development of supercells
   this afternoon. Severe hail and wind are the main threats. A few
   instances of 2+ inch diameter hail may occur, along with a tornado.
   A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed soon.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29590204 30380193 30980140 31220033 31209921 30609908
               29739935 29239974 29020026 29070067 29370105 29590145
               29620163 29590204 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN