Mesoscale Discussion 0680
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025

   Areas affected...eastern parts of the Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041759Z - 042030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Sparse strong wind gusts may accompany the stronger storms
   that develop, and an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. A WW
   issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are maturing along a remnant frontal
   boundary across the northern Florida Peninsula, and are poised to
   progress into a destabilizing airmass, where over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE
   is already in place. Despite adequate buoyancy, deep-layer shear is
   expected to be weaker compared to the southern FL Peninsula, where
   the 300 mb jet maximum will be located later this afternoon. As
   such, the modest buoyancy and mediocre shear profile should limit
   severe wind and hail from becoming widespread, though a couple of
   strong wind gusts are still possible, along with an instance of
   hail. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance
   appears unlikely.

   ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/04/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   27238151 28048174 29408213 30058222 30398220 30498188
               30208148 29208097 28678064 28388061 27768043 27438033
               27178046 27088097 27098116 27238151 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN