Mesoscale Discussion 0681
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0102 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025

   Areas affected...western/central/northern NM

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041802Z - 042000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...To the northwest of the more favorable supercell regime in
   southeast New Mexico, sporadic/isolated severe wind gusts along with
   small to marginally severe hail will be possible through the
   afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch appears unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Similar to southeast NM, a difluent upper-level flow
   regime and orographic forcing will support scattered high-based
   convection this afternoon, centered on west-central to northwest and
   north-central NM. However, this will remain within a predominantly
   meridional flow regime, limiting veering of the wind profile with
   height. Coupled with surface dew points predominately holding in the
   30s, supporting only meager buoyancy, overall setup is unlikely to
   sustain organized severe. Nevertheless, well-mixed thermodynamic
   profiles will offer a threat for sporadic strong to isolated severe
   gusts, as convection moves north-northeast this afternoon.

   ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/04/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   36950668 36570557 35670480 34850456 34270624 33220656
               33120741 34080806 35820861 36530846 36950668 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN