Mesoscale Discussion 0690
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1105 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025

   Areas affected...central/eastern NC and southern VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 051605Z - 051800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...At least isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be
   possible this afternoon along/ahead of a weak front from
   central/eastern North Carolina into southern Virginia. Monitoring
   for a potential severe thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...A compact mid-level jetlet, curling around the
   southeast quadrant of the broader OH Valley low and attendant
   trough, will support potential for occasional mid-level updraft
   rotation along a weak north/south-oriented baroclinic zone across
   central NC into south-central VA. Initial storm development is
   underway along this boundary, with more isolated activity expected
   near the southern NC coast. With eastern extent, hodograph structure
   will be less favorable as it progressively becomes more of a J to
   reverse-L shape. But this weakness in the hodograph may be
   compensated by greater boundary-layer heating and MLCAPE with
   eastern extent. Overall setup is expected to support
   north-northeastward moving storms with a mixed severe hail/damaging
   wind threat.

   ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

   LAT...LON   35137940 36627911 37867899 38317880 38367782 37697710
               37037701 36087724 35297715 34927698 34697723 34447773
               34377814 34877908 35137940 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN