Mesoscale Discussion 0697
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0210 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

   Areas affected...eastern NC and southeast VA

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223...

   Valid 051910Z - 052115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A mixed severe hail/damaging wind threat should persist
   across eastern North Carolina and advance/shift north-northeast
   across southeast Virginia through early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Numerous cells have been prevalent, especially across
   central into eastern NC this afternoon. Here, a south-southwesterly
   deep-layer wind profile, per area VWPs, along with transient
   supercell structures has resulted in convection largely progressing
   northeastward thus far. But activity should pivot to a greater
   northerly component given the evolution of the upstream vort
   max/attendant mid-level jetlet. Air mass appears to be modestly
   unstable downstream across southeast VA with MLCAPE of 1000-1500
   J/kg. This should help sustain a severe hail/damaging wind threat
   through early evening. Despite numerous cells and hail reports, peak
   severe magnitude has only reached 1 inch thus far.

   ..Grams.. 05/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   35777850 36717804 37187784 37797747 37877710 37787662
               37427648 36687664 35597701 35077731 34887758 34717781
               34747818 35047835 35777850 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN