ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 051910 
SPC MCD 051910 
VAZ000-NCZ000-052115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0697
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Areas affected...eastern NC and southeast VA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223...

Valid 051910Z - 052115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223
continues.

SUMMARY...A mixed severe hail/damaging wind threat should persist
across eastern North Carolina and advance/shift north-northeast
across southeast Virginia through early evening.

DISCUSSION...Numerous cells have been prevalent, especially across
central into eastern NC this afternoon. Here, a south-southwesterly
deep-layer wind profile, per area VWPs, along with transient
supercell structures has resulted in convection largely progressing
northeastward thus far. But activity should pivot to a greater
northerly component given the evolution of the upstream vort
max/attendant mid-level jetlet. Air mass appears to be modestly
unstable downstream across southeast VA with MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg. This should help sustain a severe hail/damaging wind threat
through early evening. Despite numerous cells and hail reports, peak
severe magnitude has only reached 1 inch thus far.

..Grams.. 05/05/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   35777850 36717804 37187784 37797747 37877710 37787662
            37427648 36687664 35597701 35077731 34887758 34717781
            34747818 35047835 35777850 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

NNNN