Mesoscale Discussion 0702
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0507 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

   Areas affected...Far southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223...

   Valid 052207Z - 060000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along and ahead of a cold
   front/outflow boundary will continue to see periods of
   intensification to severe limits through early evening across
   eastern North Carolina and into far southeast Virginia.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, discrete/semi-discrete cells across
   eastern NC and southeast VA have shown a slight downturn in overall
   intensity and organization based on reflectivity
   structure/intensity, MRMS echo top/vertical ice metrics, and
   cloud-top temperatures. For cells developing along an eastward
   propagating, storm motions along/slightly behind the boundary are
   likely responsible for this trend. Regardless, the overall
   convective environment across NC and southeast VA remains favorable
   for organized convection. Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates continue
   to show MLCAPE values upwards of 1500 J/kg and surface-based lifted
   indices between -6 to -8 C across parts of eastern NC ahead of the
   boundary. Additionally, the MHX VWP continues to sample deep-layer
   shear on the order of 40 knots. GOES visible imagery shows agitated
   cumulus along and ahead of the boundary, suggesting that new cell
   development remains possible. The expectation for the next couple of
   hours is that ongoing convection may see an uptick in intensity as
   it pushes east/northeast further into the buoyant air mass, and new
   convection may develop along/ahead of the boundary across eastern NC
   with an attendant hail/wind risk.

   ..Moore.. 05/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34897850 35687776 36467734 36807736 36987730 37157697
               37057651 36797615 36557602 36377605 36047615 35637643
               35177684 34527759 34417789 34397813 34457836 34627857
               34897850 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN