Mesoscale Discussion 0709
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

   Areas affected...parts of swrn TX and adjacent sern NM

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 229...

   Valid 060430Z - 060630Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 229 continues.

   SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorm initiation now appears underway
   across the Pecos Valley into Del Rio vicinity.  A few cells may
   undergo considerable further intensification accompanied by
   increasing potential to produce very large hail and perhaps a strong
   tornado or two.

   DISCUSSION...Increasing and intensifying discrete thunderstorm
   development now appears underway across the Pecos Valley. This is
   focused within modestly deep surface troughing east-southeast of a
   surface low, now centered west-northwest of Fort Stockton, where
   boundary-layer moisture characterized by lower 60s surface dew
   points has spread as far northwest as the I-20 corridor to the
   southwest of Midland/Odessa.  This is contributing to mixed-layer
   CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg.

   With further weakening of inhibition, strengthening convection
   rooted within this environment will pose the greatest potential to
   undergo rapid intensification, supported by both strong deep-layer
   shear and now enlarged, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs along
   a southeasterly low-level jet (40-50 kt around 850 mb).  This
   environment appears potentially conducive to a couple of intense
   supercells posing a risk for very large hail and perhaps a strong
   tornado or two.

   ..Kerr.. 05/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31890394 32020289 30800113 30090066 29860222 30280270
               30760382 31330385 31890394 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN