ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 062301 SPC MCD 062301 LAZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-070100- Mesoscale Discussion 0726 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0601 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...much of srn/ern LA...wrn MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 234...235... Valid 062301Z - 070100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 234, 235 continues. SUMMARY...The more discrete storms may occasionally intensify and pose a risk for a tornado through 7-9 PM CDT. Otherwise, storms may tend to slowly consolidate into another organizing but slow moving cluster, accompanied by a risk for locally damaging wind gusts and/or brief tornadoes while spreading eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. DISCUSSION...A meso-beta scale cyclonic circulation continues slowly eastward across north central Louisiana, with a compact but vigorous arcing band of convection being maintained to its immediate southeast through south. This has evolved along a weak near-surface baroclinic zone slowly retreating northward through the lower Mississippi Valley. 21-22Z surface observations have indicated the continuing presence of a notable 2-hourly surface fall/rise couplet (in excess of 2 mb) in association with this perturbation, though little in the way strong surface gusts have been observed. Along and south of the frontal zone, there has been a substantive increase in thunderstorm development, some of which has or could still become rooted within a seasonably moist boundary-layer characterized by lower 70s F surface dew points and CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorm initiation has likely been supported by large-scale forcing for ascent associated with broad lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, beneath strongly difluent upper flow which will only very slowly continue to overspread the lower Mississippi Valley through mid/late evening. As long as discrete thunderstorm development persists, there will be potential for occasional intensification, as these cells become rooted within the boundary-layer, in the presence of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs conditionally supportive of strong tornadoes. However, within time, models suggest that the southerly 850 mb may begin to weaken, and consolidating convection may tend to grow upscale into organized but slow moving convective system. ..Kerr.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31039410 31689319 32189265 32629203 33089111 32398983 31038984 29559026 29659157 29779296 29759398 30419446 31039410 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN NNNN