Mesoscale Discussion 0739
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0758 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of Deep South Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 081258Z - 081430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storm development is possible
   this morning.

   DISCUSSION...Very rich low-level moisture remains in place across
   Deep South TX this morning, with MLCAPE above 2500 J/kg and minimal
   MLCINH already noted on regional 12Z soundings and recent
   mesoanalyses. With the primary mid/upper-level shortwave trough
   still well to the west, coverage and intensity of morning convection
   across the region is uncertain. However, showers have recently
   developed within a zone of weak surface confluence across Cameron
   County, and some guidance depicts development of deep convection
   within this area later this morning. 

   If deep convection can initiate and be sustained this morning,
   strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear will support
   supercell potential, with an attendant threat of large hail, locally
   damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado. Given the conditionality of
   the morning threat, the short-term need for watch issuance is
   uncertain. Additional rounds of strong to severe storms will be
   possible later today, with eventual watch issuance possible.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   25889710 25959805 26209836 26659846 27349827 27549791
               27539756 27479711 26419698 25889710 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN