Mesoscale Discussion 0741
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1132 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of far Western and South-Central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 081632Z - 081830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms capable of large to very large hail and severe
   winds possible through the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity ongoing near the Trans Pecos and
   Davis Mountains is showing an uptick in intensity over the last 30
   minutes. Additionally, cumulus development further south across the
   Texas Big Bend is noted on visible satellite. Further thunderstorm
   development is expected this afternoon as a weak shortwave shifts
   eastward and the current activity shifts south and eastward through
   time. 

   The environment across this region is characterized by MLCAPE around
   500-1000 J/kg, steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and deep layer
   shear 45-50 kts. Further daytime heating and moist advection will
   lead to increase in instability through the afternoon. This regime
   will support a mix of supercells and multi-cell clusters capable of
   large to very large hail (some 2-2.5 in) and severe wind. There is
   some uncertainty on when the most robust convection will develop
   beyond the ongoing thunderstorms. This will be monitored for watch
   potential this afternoon.

   ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29560454 29830464 30310420 30520361 30720301 30820260
               30870201 30770137 30560093 30200066 29820049 29570051
               29370064 29270082 29310092 29690155 29730207 29700251
               29490269 29070288 28920309 28930344 29030360 29200394
               29360422 29560454