Mesoscale Discussion 0756
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0708 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle into far southeast AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 101208Z - 101415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A localized tornado and wind-damage threat may spread
   eastward this morning.

   DISCUSSION...A persistent storm cluster with embedded supercells is
   moving eastward this morning across the FL Panhandle, to the east of
   a surface low near Mobile Bay. Occasional upticks in rotation have
   been noted over the last hour as cells interact with a frontal zone
   that is very gradually moving northward across the area. Some
   additional northward progression of the front is possible through
   the morning, aided by the onset of modest diurnal heating downstream
   of ongoing convection. This would increase the area across the
   peninsula where an organized severe threat could evolve over the
   next 2-3 hours. A supercell currently south of Fort Walton Beach
   could pose a threat if it moves onshore, and additional cell
   development is possible within developing convection west of Panama
   City. 

   Near and south of the front, favorable low-level moisture and
   veering wind profiles (with effective SRH increasing above 100
   m2/s2) will continue to support localized tornado and wind-damage
   potential with any sustained supercells.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/10/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30988675 31098553 30998502 30578490 30018483 29938486
               29758499 29538529 29608559 29758590 29898630 29988670
               30198700 30988675 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH