ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 130919 
SPC MCD 130919 
NCZ000-VAZ000-131145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0773
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Areas affected...Parts of eastern NC into southeast VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 130919Z - 131145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A localized brief-tornado and wind-damage threat will
spread northward through dawn.

DISCUSSION...Occasional rotation continues to be noted with embedded
northward-moving cells across eastern NC. An apparent tornado
occurred earlier in Edgecombe County, NC, and the environment
remains modestly favorable for transient supercells, with MLCAPE
approaching 500 J/kg and effective SRH generally in the 150-200
m2/s2 range. This environment is expected to gradually spread
northward with time, in conjunction with a strengthening low-level
jet. As this occurs, a localized brief-tornado and wind-damage
threat will potentially expand across northeast NC into far
southeast VA by dawn. 

Farther south, some veering and weakening of low-level flow has been
noted on the KLTX VWP. However, convection remains somewhat vigorous
(as evidenced by recent lightning activity) across southeast NC, and
this trailing convective cluster could pose a localized severe
threat as it continues to move northeastward.

..Dean/Bunting.. 05/13/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON   35467541 35357549 34547652 34187716 33857815 34147836
            34527842 34917859 36417934 36747884 36897799 37017710
            36897627 36647601 35937560 35647549 35467541 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

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