Mesoscale Discussion 0785
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0723 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast SD...southern MN...extreme northeast
   NE/northwest IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151223Z - 151400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for strong to isolated severe storms may continue
   through the morning.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived storm cluster is ongoing this morning
   across south-central MN. This system has persisted longer than most
   guidance would suggest, and is likely being aided by persistent
   moisture transport associated with a strong low-level jet. While
   this system remains relatively disorganized with outflow tending to
   outpace the deeper convection, localized strong wind gusts and hail
   will be possible, especially where new updrafts develop and briefly
   intensify behind the outflow. 

   To the southwest, renewed storm development is underway across
   southeast SD and far northeast NE, immediately in advance of a
   compact but vigorous midlevel shortwave trough moving across
   north-central NE/south-central SD. Rather strong low-level
   southeasterly flow will maintain moisture transport into the region
   through the morning ahead of a cold front, and development of
   somewhat more organized convection will be possible with time. In
   the short term, convection will tend to be somewhat elevated, but
   could become rooted closer to the surface later this morning,
   especially with southeast extent. Some hail and strong-gust
   potential could evolve if convection is able to deepen and intensify
   within this regime.  

   With the threat expected to remain rather isolated over the next 1-2
   hours, short-term watch issuance is considered unlikely. Trends will
   continue to be monitored for intensification with time this morning.

   ..Dean/Bunting.. 05/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...

   LAT...LON   43759861 44979732 45289595 45409490 45409384 45129316
               44599296 44179290 43649334 43539415 43479504 43269575
               42909627 42609653 42449683 42619714 42779752 42999832
               43759861 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN