ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 151223 
SPC MCD 151223 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-151400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0785
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Areas affected...Southeast SD...southern MN...extreme northeast
NE/northwest IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 151223Z - 151400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for strong to isolated severe storms may continue
through the morning.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived storm cluster is ongoing this morning
across south-central MN. This system has persisted longer than most
guidance would suggest, and is likely being aided by persistent
moisture transport associated with a strong low-level jet. While
this system remains relatively disorganized with outflow tending to
outpace the deeper convection, localized strong wind gusts and hail
will be possible, especially where new updrafts develop and briefly
intensify behind the outflow. 

To the southwest, renewed storm development is underway across
southeast SD and far northeast NE, immediately in advance of a
compact but vigorous midlevel shortwave trough moving across
north-central NE/south-central SD. Rather strong low-level
southeasterly flow will maintain moisture transport into the region
through the morning ahead of a cold front, and development of
somewhat more organized convection will be possible with time. In
the short term, convection will tend to be somewhat elevated, but
could become rooted closer to the surface later this morning,
especially with southeast extent. Some hail and strong-gust
potential could evolve if convection is able to deepen and intensify
within this regime.  

With the threat expected to remain rather isolated over the next 1-2
hours, short-term watch issuance is considered unlikely. Trends will
continue to be monitored for intensification with time this morning.

..Dean/Bunting.. 05/15/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...

LAT...LON   43759861 44979732 45289595 45409490 45409384 45129316
            44599296 44179290 43649334 43539415 43479504 43269575
            42909627 42609653 42449683 42619714 42779752 42999832
            43759861 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

NNNN