Mesoscale Discussion 0788
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0123 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

   Areas affected...portions of eastern West Virginia and much of
   Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 151823Z - 152000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase over the next few hours.
   Multicells and supercells will be the primary storm mode, with
   severe wind and hail the main threats. A few instances of 2+ inch
   diameter hail are possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
   eventually be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows agitated cumulus along the
   WV/VA border, driven primarily by boundary layer destabilization,
   along with orographic lift associated with the Appalachians. Surface
   temperatures have already warmed into the mid to upper 70s F to the
   immediate lee of the Appalachians, where upper 60s F dewpoints,
   beneath the eastward extent of an EML plume, supports 1500+ J/kg
   MLCAPE. The 17Z RNK observed sounding shows 8 C/km 700-500 mb lapse
   rates and the freezing level around 600 mb, beneath where most of
   the CAPE resides, along with modestly elongated hodographs. Such
   conditions support supercells capable of severe gusts and large
   hail, including a few instances of 2+ inch in diameter stones. Given
   a gradually increasing severe threat, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   will eventually be needed.

   ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...

   LAT...LON   36608017 36768076 37298113 37938092 38388044 38797971
               38967837 38617777 37937732 37257730 36797770 36637848
               36608017 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN