ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152007 
SPC MCD 152007 
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-152130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0793
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Areas affected...portions of central Arkansas into western
Tennessee...far southeast Missouri...far southwestern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252...

Valid 152007Z - 152130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252
continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing storms may still reach severe limits, with
damaging gusts and large hail the main concerns. These storms may
persist downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252, so a local
extension of the ongoing watch, or the issuance of a new downstream
Severe Thunderstorm Watch, may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms (still possibly elevated) continue
across AR amid a pronounced EML atop rich low-level moisture and
strong deep-layer shear. As such, any storm cores that can intensify
will continue to pose at least a severe hail threat. Severe gusts
are also possible if ongoing storms can become surface based by
either rooting into the boundary layer, or establishing a strong
cold pool, which could lift surface-based parcels to the LFC along
the cold pool leading edge. It remains uncertain if these storms
have peaked in intensity or if greater severe potential exists
downstream. As such, an eastward extension of the ongoing Severe
Thunderstorm Watch, or the issuance of a new watch, may be needed
pending favorable convective trends.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/15/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   34939340 36199176 36989020 37528788 37338714 36848734
            36298804 35678882 35288982 35009097 34939340 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

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