Mesoscale Discussion 0795
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0536 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern Wisconsin

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 253...

   Valid 152236Z - 160000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 253 continues.

   SUMMARY...Arcing band of supercells will continue to pose a risk of
   tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.

   DISCUSSION...An arcing band of semi-discrete supercells continues
   tracking northeastward across parts of central/eastern WI this
   evening -- generally focused along an occluded surface front. Around
   40-50 kt of effective shear oriented off the boundary should
   maintain the semi-discrete mode, especially in the near-term. Ahead
   of these storms, backed surface winds in the sheltered boundary
   layer beneath a warm-advection plume is yielding upwards of 400
   m2/s2 0-1km SRH (per MKX VWP). Given middle 60s dewpoints beneath
   steep midlevel lapse rates (and surface-based inflow layers), this
   enhanced low-level streamwise vorticity will continue to support a
   supercell tornado threat for the next couple hours -- before storms
   move too far east into more stable low-level air. The most
   concerning area appears to be at the southern end of the line in
   south-central WI, where SRH and surface-based inflow is maximized
   amid a more discrete supercell mode. Large hail and damaging winds
   will also remain possible with this activity.

   ..Weinman.. 05/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

   LAT...LON   43018873 43968955 44619031 45019061 45289039 45418983
               45198920 45028886 44508832 43878794 43398782 43058794
               42838829 43018873 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN