Mesoscale Discussion 0797
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0607 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

   Areas affected...Far northeastern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 152307Z - 160030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Line of storms will continue northeastward across
   northeastern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan this evening, posing a
   risk of damaging winds and isolated large hail. Trends are being
   monitored for a possible watch for parts of the area.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from GRB depicts a broken band of
   supercell structures tracking northeastward across north-central
   Wisconsin. These storms are nearing the eastern edge of the middle
   60s dewpoints and related moderate surface-based instability. Given
   the ample buoyancy and favorable low/deep-layer shear extending into
   parts of northeastern WI, a local extension of Tornado Watch 253 may
   be warranted. Farther northeast into Upper Michigan, visible
   satellite imagery depicts stable billow cloud structures, where the
   boundary layer likely remains capped amid lower 60s dewpoints and
   gradually increasing nocturnal static stability. Nevertheless, given
   the well-established line of storms approaching the area, damaging
   winds and isolated severe hail cannot be entirely ruled out.
   Convective trends are being monitored for a downstream watch over
   parts of the area.

   ..Weinman/Gleason.. 05/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

   LAT...LON   45848956 46589032 46939004 47048932 46958870 46598772
               46068681 45568653 45078672 44878742 45348860 45848956 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN