ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152307 
SPC MCD 152307 
MIZ000-WIZ000-160030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0797
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0607 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Areas affected...Far northeastern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 152307Z - 160030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Line of storms will continue northeastward across
northeastern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan this evening, posing a
risk of damaging winds and isolated large hail. Trends are being
monitored for a possible watch for parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from GRB depicts a broken band of
supercell structures tracking northeastward across north-central
Wisconsin. These storms are nearing the eastern edge of the middle
60s dewpoints and related moderate surface-based instability. Given
the ample buoyancy and favorable low/deep-layer shear extending into
parts of northeastern WI, a local extension of Tornado Watch 253 may
be warranted. Farther northeast into Upper Michigan, visible
satellite imagery depicts stable billow cloud structures, where the
boundary layer likely remains capped amid lower 60s dewpoints and
gradually increasing nocturnal static stability. Nevertheless, given
the well-established line of storms approaching the area, damaging
winds and isolated severe hail cannot be entirely ruled out.
Convective trends are being monitored for a downstream watch over
parts of the area.

..Weinman/Gleason.. 05/15/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

LAT...LON   45848956 46589032 46939004 47048932 46958870 46598772
            46068681 45568653 45078672 44878742 45348860 45848956 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

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