Mesoscale Discussion 0802
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0146 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

   Areas affected...central Arkansas northeastward into western
   Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 160646Z - 160845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop this morning across
   portions of central/northern Arkansas. The overall environment will
   support large hail and gusty winds, although a tornadoes cannot be
   ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...A slowly advancing cold front will continue to move
   east/southeast across the region this morning. Scattered convective
   showers continue to percolate across Arkansas along this boundary.
   The airmass along and ahead of the front is highly sheared and quite
   unstable, with effective layer shear in excess of 60 knots and
   MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Despite this favorable environment,
   the convective showers have failed to turn the corner into robust
   deep convection. 

   That said, 00Z HREF members and recent HRRR runs are insistent that
   deep convection will eventually develop across portions of Arkansas
   this morning. The most likely area would be across west-central into
   north-central Arkansas where latest mesoanalysis data suggests a
   weakening of the convective inhibition. Should this occur, the
   large-scale environment will be conducive for severe thunderstorms,
   with the primary hazard being large hail. However, given the very
   moist low-level environment, degree of instability, and
   effective-layer shear, tornadoes cannot be ruled out. 

   The area will continue to be monitored for signs that deep
   convection is imminent at which point a watch will be needed.

   ..Marsh/Bunting.. 05/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   35219390 36899104 37618940 38138780 37618671 36138741
               34119170 34069363 35219390 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN