ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 160646 
SPC MCD 160646 
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-160845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0802
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Areas affected...central Arkansas northeastward into western
Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 160646Z - 160845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop this morning across
portions of central/northern Arkansas. The overall environment will
support large hail and gusty winds, although a tornadoes cannot be
ruled out.

DISCUSSION...A slowly advancing cold front will continue to move
east/southeast across the region this morning. Scattered convective
showers continue to percolate across Arkansas along this boundary.
The airmass along and ahead of the front is highly sheared and quite
unstable, with effective layer shear in excess of 60 knots and
MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Despite this favorable environment,
the convective showers have failed to turn the corner into robust
deep convection. 

That said, 00Z HREF members and recent HRRR runs are insistent that
deep convection will eventually develop across portions of Arkansas
this morning. The most likely area would be across west-central into
north-central Arkansas where latest mesoanalysis data suggests a
weakening of the convective inhibition. Should this occur, the
large-scale environment will be conducive for severe thunderstorms,
with the primary hazard being large hail. However, given the very
moist low-level environment, degree of instability, and
effective-layer shear, tornadoes cannot be ruled out. 

The area will continue to be monitored for signs that deep
convection is imminent at which point a watch will be needed.

..Marsh/Bunting.. 05/16/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   35219390 36899104 37618940 38138780 37618671 36138741
            34119170 34069363 35219390 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

NNNN