Mesoscale Discussion 0810
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0926 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

   Areas affected...the Cumberland Plateau and southern Appalachians

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 161426Z - 161630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe threat, primarily in the form of large hail and
   eventually damaging winds, is expected to increase across the
   Cumberland Plateau and a part of the southern Appalachians.

   DISCUSSION...An arcing band of thunderstorms has developed into
   eastern KY, downstream of a broad MCS over central/western KY into
   northwest TN. Despite an ample cirrus canopy to the east, moderate
   insolation is underway. Coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates, as
   sampled in regional 12Z soundings, the plume of large buoyancy over
   the TN Valley will extend northeastward towards the southern
   Appalachians. Fast, nearly unidirectional westerly deep-layer shear
   should favor at least a few supercells ahead of the MCS moving east.
   A mix of large hail, which could be significant, along with damaging
   winds seems likely.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...

   LAT...LON   38178385 38138243 37918045 37618009 37297992 36578015
               36018077 36268280 36528419 36778477 38178385 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN