Mesoscale Discussion 0821
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0506 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

   Areas affected...Lower Ohio Valley

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 265...

   Valid 162206Z - 170000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 265 continues.

   SUMMARY...The tornado threat is expected to increase over western
   Kentucky over the next 1 to 2 hours, where a few strong tornadoes
   will be likely. A long-track high-end tornado may occur. In
   addition, very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter, and
   wind gusts exceeding 75 mph will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of severe storms is currently ongoing from
   far western Kentucky northward into southern Illinois. The storms
   are located near a maximum in instability, where MLCAPE is estimated
   in the 3500 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition to the instability, a
   shortwave trough and distinct vorticity max is evident on water
   vapor imagery. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max,
   is contributing to strong deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent.
   As a 45 to 55 knot low-level jet strengthens across the lower Ohio
   Valley from late afternoon into the early evening, a threat for
   supercells with tornadoes will continue. The 19Z sounding from
   Nashville had a looped hodograph, with 0-3 km storm-relative
   helicity around 300 m2/s2. As low-level shear increases over the
   next few hours, a few strong tornadoes will be likely, and a
   long-track high-end tornado will be possible. The greatest tornado
   potential will be in an east-to-west corridor across western
   Kentucky. In addition, supercells will also be capable of producing
   very large hail greater than 3 inches in diameter, and wind gusts
   exceeding 80 mph.

   Further to the north into parts of southern Illinois and southern
   Indiana, a tornado threat is expected. In addition to tornadoes, the
   more intense supercells and/or short intense line segments will be
   capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. Hailstones
   greater than 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts above 70 mph will
   be possible.

   ..Broyles.. 05/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38558523 37798516 37158534 36598575 36428658 36458766
               36608889 36988946 37608940 38588882 38928831 39038718
               39008637 38838554 38558523 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN