ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 162323 SPC MCD 162323 TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-170130- Mesoscale Discussion 0825 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas...Western Tennessee...Far Northern Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 262... Valid 162323Z - 170130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 262 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado threat is expected to develop over the next few hours across parts of northeast Arkansas, western Tennessee and far northern Mississippi. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a northeast-to-southwest oriented line of supercells from southern Illinois into southeast Missouri and far northern Arkansas. These storms are located ahead of a cold front, along the western edge of an axis of strong instability. MLCAPE along the instability axis is estimated to be in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range, according to the RAP. The instability and large-scale ascent, associated with a shortwave trough moving through the lower Ohio Valley, will support new convective development to the south of the ongoing activity across northeastern Arkansas over the next couple of hours. These new storms are expected to move eastward into western Tennessee later this evening. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Memphis has 0-6 km near 50 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 350 m2/s2. This environment will support supercells and tornadoes. In addition, steep low to mid-level lapse rates are in the 7 to 8 C/km range, according to the RAP. This suggests that large hail will be likely with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. Severe wind gusts, with some potentially above 75 mph, will be possible. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 34828988 34928926 35178887 35638871 36078873 36348889 36598946 36669128 36479228 35949270 35239268 34939236 34829199 34799147 34828988 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN NNNN